Property Investment in Nottingham, a guide

 Your free guide to Property Investment in Nottingham, dated May 2023

Based on its strong performance over the last five years and more, Nottingham certainly deserves to be considered as one of the UK’s most attractive destinations for buy-to-let property investment. There are several reasons for this and here we explore some of most important of them.

Why Invest in Nottingham? A Summary

In recent years, property investment in Nottingham has been a rewarding business. According to numerous sources, the city has delivered some of the country’s best yields, together with some of the highest rates of capital appreciation. On both these key measures of investment success, Nottingham has been performing extremely well.

Of course, an impressive track record is no guarantee of future performance, but there are many good reasons to believe that Nottingham will continue to deliver excellent returns in the years ahead. Key points to consider include:

  • Being part of the UK’s fastest-growing regional economy

  • A large and growing population

  • A pronounced shortfall in housing supply

  • Affordable property prices

  • Large-scale urban regeneration and inward investment

  • Expected to connect to the HS2 rail network

  • Many well-established major employers

  • Steady growth in high-value industries

  • A university student population of around 60,000

  • An ambitious economic development plan

  • Thousands of new jobs being created

  • 39,000 new jobs targeted by 2030

Our free guide to Property Investment in Nottingham

 

Nottingham – an Overview

Nottingham is the largest urban area in the East Midlands. According to the 2021 census, Nottingham had a population of around 323,600, but more than 920,000 residents live within its wider functional boundaries. ONS notes that “between the last two censuses (held in 2011 and 2021), the population of Nottingham increased by +5.9%.”

Located roughly 110 miles north of London and around 120 miles south of Newcastle, Nottingham occupies a central position within England and is well served by the motorway and rail networks. The East Midlands Airport lies just 15 miles away and the city is eventually expected to connect to the HS2 network, greatly reducing journey times to other key UK destinations.

As a result of this excellent strategic position, Nottingham is home to a wealth of large employers. Boots is one of the most notable private sector employers with its base here, but the city also hosts a number of large multinational businesses. Rolls Royce employs around nearly a thousand workers in the county, Center Parcs supports around 1,500, and Experian has a local workforce of over 2,000.

Public Sector Employers

Some of Nottingham’s most important public sector employees include:

•             Nottingham University Hospitals Trust

•             Nottingham City Council

•             Nottinghamshire County Council

•             Nottinghamshire Health Care Trust

•             Sherwood Forest Hospitals Trust

•             Nottinghamshire Police

Together, these and similar organisations employ nearly 50,000 people, and to that figure we must add all those working in the city’s further and higher education sectors. Together, the University of Nottingham, Nottingham Trent University and Nottingham College employ nearly 10,000 additional workers.

This strong and balanced mix of well-established public and private sector employers has given Nottingham a robust economic foundation. However, city planners are seeking to build on this in the shape of an ambitious economic strategy. This aims to secure billions of pounds of inward investment, and to accelerate the growth of some of the city’s most successful local industries.

Inward Investment in Nottingham

Securing inward investment is the remit of D2N2 – the Local Enterprise Partnership for Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire.  It is responsible for supporting business growth in an area with a population of over two million people, and an economic output of over £42.9 billion per annum.

D2N2 certainly has a successful track record. Its previous economic plan, which launched in 2013, achieved its aim of creating 55,000 new jobs within three years. Its second strategic plan, entitled Vision 2030, seeks to generate up to £9 billion in added value in the local economy. D2N2 writes that is intends to push the region “into the top 25% in Europe for productivity, raising earnings, narrowing inequality and sharing prosperity across all parts of our two cities and two counties.”

Although the coronavirus pandemic inevitably slowed local economic growth, the D2N2 strategic plan is producing important new infrastructure and driving a number of major urban renewal projects that should support the creation of thousands of new jobs.

The published aims of the plan include increasing the value of the area’s economy to £70 billion per annum, and creating approximately 39,000 new jobs by 2030. Importantly for a city that, historically, has supported a relatively high proportion of low-paid jobs, the strategy aims to ensure that 90% of those new jobs are created within the service sector and in various knowledge-based industries.

To do this, D2N2 and Nottingham City Council are both committing substantial resources to business support programmes, training and vocational skills development, new business incubators and the creation of new workspace for future-focused businesses. In this, they are supported by important business outreach and commercial research programmes run by Nottingham’s two universities.

Meanwhile, Nottingham’s physical infrastructure is being enhanced through a number of major construction projects. Progress was delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic but there is no doubting the scale of the improvements, nor their likely impacts once they are finished. Already, Nottingham City Council has reported that local regeneration projects have generated around 1,000 new jobs, and more are certain to follow.

Some of the most important and transformative schemes in Nottingham include:

  • Invest in Nottingham notes that “the Island Quarter is 36 acres of former brownfield land, set to be transformed into a new £1 billion 'city within a city'... Centred around a ‘green river,’ the Island Quarter will include a 223-room hotel in partnership with IHG, and have more than 20 restaurants and bars.” The plan also includes 60,000 sq ft of office space.

  • a £250 million retail and leisure development. This includes the £89 million Broadmarsh Shopping Centre project, which will feature new retail space, restaurants and leisure activities, “including a multi-screen cinema and new restaurants.”

    The remodelling of the shopping centre will run in parallel with the creation of a new bus station and car park. This £43 million project will improve accessibility to the city centre.

    Nottingham City Council notes that this work is part of a wider plan to enhance a large part of the city centre. It writes that “the Broadmarsh redevelopment programme forms part of the £600 million worth of regeneration (taking place) in areas such as at Nottingham Station, Station Street, Unity Square, City Buildings, Carrington Street and more.”

  • The Nottingham College City Hub campus is a new £58 million educational building that is creating “new facilities and resources for college students, and providing community facilities such as a new training restaurant, café and performing arts centre.” The new-build project will also deliver improvements to the public realm, including the creation of open green spaces and enhanced lighting and accessibility.

  • a recently built regional centre that now supports around 4,000 HMRC staff. The ten-storey building is located close to the city railway station and is another important part of the Southern Gateway regeneration project. The project was valued at £60 million.

  • the £31 million refurbishment of Nottingham Castle and extension of this scheduled historic monument is expected to attract up to 350,000 visitors per annum, together with around £9 million of annual tourist spending.

  • this £100 million redevelopment scheme is designed to increase the club’s capacity to 35,000. Although delayed in 2023, it will eventually entail improvements to three existing stands, and the construction of a new three-tier stand that will also include a museum, hospitality facilities, restaurants and executive boxes for the Nottingham Forest Stadium.

This is just a selection of the many urban regeneration projects that are now in progress in Nottingham. Some – like the HMRC office development – have generated jobs almost immediately, while transport improvements and business support schemes will tend to have more of a slow-burn effect. Collectively, however, they should all have a positive impact on the economy and on market conditions for property investors.

Business Growth in Nottingham

In February 2023, Ernst & Young published its Regional Economic Forecast, which records that Nottingham’s economy grew by +4.9% in 2022. However, it also reports challenges including relatively low skill levels in the workforce and a greater reliance on lower value economic activities.

Although the city has roots in manufacturing and textiles, Nottingham is now working hard to reposition itself. Today, some of its fastest-growing industries include:

  • Advanced manufacturing

  • Digital and creative industries

  • Distribution and logistics

  • Financial and business services

  • Life sciences

  • Tourism

This shift towards more forward-looking sectors is important. Nottingham is projecting steady growth in employment over the next decade, boosting job numbers by 39,000, but, unlike many cities, it is not making job creation a central objective of its economic plan. Rather, it is committed to changing the pattern of local employment; moving more people into higher-skilled, better-paid roles.

This is significant for property investors because if more local people take up more professional, higher-paid jobs, so the average spending power of tenants improves. This helps to boost demand for higher quality rental accommodation, while a general improvement in living standards can also help to fuel an upward movement in average house prices.

D2N2 explains its rationale as follows: “There will not be a lot of new labour entering the economy between now and 2030, so we must find ways of producing more output with the labour we have. We need to enable workers at all levels to move up into the more productive, better-paid jobs, and raise workforce skills levels to respond to the economy’s future needs.”

Nottingham’s Universities

Nottingham’s property market is boosted by the presence of two universities, which help to ensure steady seasonal demand for rentals. The University of Nottingham has a student body of approximately 32,000, while Nottingham Trent University has approximately 33,000 undergraduates and postgraduates. In addition, Nottingham is home to the Queen’s Medical Centre, one of the country’s largest teaching hospitals.

In addition to attracting these many thousands of potential student tenants, the education sector sustains huge numbers of local jobs. Nottingham University has published an economic impact analysis, which offers the following data:

  • Total economic impact (UK-wide): £1.1 billion

  • Economic impact across Nottingham: £677 million

  • Number of direct employees: 7,293

  • Jobs supported in Nottingham: 14,000

  • Expenditure in local supply chains: £32.9 million

These numbers relate only to Nottingham University, so the economic impact of the wider education sector will clearly be bigger still. The various institutions support thousands of local jobs, which will have an important effect on the property market, and they attract thousands of visitors every year, in the shape of students’ parents and friends, contractors, visiting academics, business delegates and others. In this respect, they also help to maintain healthy demand for shorter-stay lets and serviced accommodation.

Different sources quote differing estimates for average gross rental yields on student accommodation, but they typically range between 5 and 8%.

Nottingham’s Housing Market

According to Zoopla’s House Price Index, published in May 2023, Nottingham achieved the highest rate of house price growth anywhere in the country. In the 12 months April 2023, average values rose by +5.2%, which represents a far better return than Zoopla’s quoted national mean of +3.0%.

Again, different sources produce different data but they generally indicate particularly high rates of returns on residential properties in Nottingham. For example, Plumplot estimates that the city saw local prices rise by +7% year-on-year, while Land Registry figures (March 2022 to February 2023) show annual growth of +11.7%. In absolute terms, that equates to an increase of +£20,411 – i.e. from £174,178 to £194,589.

Importantly, these impressive price gains also coincide with strong rental yields. Propertydata for example, estimates that gross yields range between 3.0% and 8.2% by postcode. Of these, the central NG1 postcode produced the highest yields but the spread between highest and lowest goes to show the importance of doing the proper research and choosing exactly the right locations.

Looking at various sources over various timescales, it is clear that rental properties in the right parts of Nottingham have been delivering some exceptional returns. The important question is whether these trends will continue.

Property Market Predictions for 2023

In the immediate term, no British city or region is expected to deliver significant capital growth in 2023. Too many headwinds are acting against the property market. Most notably, they include the war in Ukraine, high levels of inflation and comparatively high interest rates, which have been making mortgages considerably more expensive.

However, there are good reasons to expect a turnaround in 2024 and beyond. By the end of 2023, the Bank of England expects the CPI rate of inflation to fall below 3% and it seems confident that it will hit its 2% target in 2024. If so, then cost-of-living pressures would ease and, with inflation back under control, the Bank’s Monetary Policy committee may well feel more comfortable about lowering the Bank Rate. That would mean lower mortgage costs and that, together with fewer domestic affordability constraints, could help to stimulate new growth in the housing market.

Savills, in its Mainstream Capital Value Forecast (published January 2023), expects the East Midlands to see 5-year price growth of +8.9%. This compares against a national average of just +6.2% by 2027.

Economists believe that the East Midlands will fare particularly well in the coming years, and that bodes well for investors with property in Nottingham. So too does the large and continuing influx of investment in the city. Demand on the part of residents and students is growing steadily, and if disposable incomes rise in accordance with local authority plans, then the prospects for rising values should be excellent. That should spell good news in terms of both capital vales and rental returns.

The undersupply of housing will not change any time soon, and nor will the strength of rental demand. Property prices will remain affordable and a raft of major urban regeneration projects will only improve Nottingham’s appeal.